The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Meteorological Forecasting Division, has stated that the influence of the monsoon system over Nepal has currently weakened. According to the Division, the country’s weather is now being partially affected by local winds rather than strong monsoonal activity. This shift has led to comparatively stable weather conditions across many regions, with occasional cloud cover and limited rainfall activity.
Forecast for Monday
On Monday, the weather is expected to remain generally cloudy in Koshi Province as well as in most of the hilly regions of the country. The remaining areas, particularly the Terai, are likely to experience partly cloudy skies with some sunny intervals. Meteorologists have forecast a chance of moderate rainfall at a few places in Koshi Province, some places in other hilly regions, and isolated parts of the Terai.
During the night, Koshi Province and other hilly regions will witness partly cloudy conditions, while the rest of the country will have predominantly fair to partly cloudy skies. The possibility of localized showers, however, cannot be ruled out.
Chances of Heavy Rainfall in Some Areas
The Department has also indicated that there is a chance of moderate rainfall at a few places in Koshi Province, Bagmati Province, and Gandaki Province. In addition, one or two places in the hilly belts of these provinces may witness heavy rainfall. Such rainfall patterns are typical during the transitional phases of the monsoon season, where localized thunderstorms and short bursts of heavy rain can occur despite the overall weakening of the monsoonal system.
Expert Insights
Meteorologist Binod Pokharel explained that the monsoon does not appear to be very active on Monday, meaning most areas are expected to enjoy sunny weather during the daytime. He highlighted that while the monsoon is weak at present, it is still capable of producing occasional rainfall. Pokharel added that light to moderate rainfall is likely in some regions later in the week.
Looking ahead, he forecast that Tuesday would likely bring rainfall to several places, including Kathmandu Valley. The current week will see scattered light to moderate showers in some parts of the country. However, the following week is expected to bring rainfall to more widespread areas as the monsoon regains momentum.
Regional Outlook
- Koshi Province: Cloudy skies with moderate rainfall in several areas, and a possibility of heavy rainfall in the hilly regions.
- Bagmati and Gandaki Provinces: Light to moderate rainfall in some places, with chances of heavy downpours in a few hilly locations.
- Other Hilly Areas: Isolated rainfall with mostly cloudy conditions.
- Terai Regions: Mostly fair to partly cloudy skies with light showers possible at one or two places.
Public Advisory
Although the monsoon activity is weak at present, the Department has advised the public to remain cautious, particularly in areas where heavy rainfall is expected. Short-lived but intense showers may cause temporary flooding in low-lying areas, waterlogging in urban settlements, and minor landslides in hilly regions. Travelers have been urged to stay updated with the latest forecasts and take necessary precautions while moving through vulnerable areas.
Farmers have also been advised to utilize the relatively dry conditions for agricultural activities but remain alert for sudden rainfall events that could affect harvesting or fieldwork. The gradual shift in rainfall intensity also plays a crucial role in sustaining water resources for agriculture and hydropower generation during the monsoon season.
Broader Monsoon Outlook
Nepal’s monsoon season typically extends from June to September, significantly influencing the country’s agriculture, water supply, and energy sectors. The weakening of the monsoon at this stage indicates the gradual transition toward its withdrawal. However, experts caution that localized weather systems may still produce heavy rainfall events, especially in the eastern and central hilly regions.
Meteorologists suggest that while the current week may bring relatively less rainfall, the following week could see an uptick in precipitation across many parts of the country. This pattern aligns with the natural variability of the South Asian monsoon, which often fluctuates in strength during its retreat phase.
Nepal is currently experiencing a weakened monsoon system with limited influence of local winds shaping the weather patterns. Koshi Province and hilly belts of Bagmati and Gandaki Provinces are more likely to see moderate to heavy rainfall in the coming days, while much of the Terai and western regions will remain partly cloudy with occasional light showers. Experts emphasize that the public should not become complacent despite the weakened monsoon, as localized heavy rain events may still occur, affecting travel and daily activities. The upcoming week promises relatively calm weather, with more widespread rainfall expected as the season progresses into its later phase.
