The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has released its weather forecast for the period from October 1 (Ashwin 15) to December 31, 2024 (Poush 16). According to the department’s prediction, the southeastern parts of Koshi, Madhes, Bagmati, Gandaki, and the eastern part of Lumbini Province are expected to experience above-average rainfall during this period.
However, the central and northern regions of Karnali Province, along with the northern part of Sudurpashchim Province, are predicted to receive below-average rainfall. The remaining parts of the country are likely to experience average rainfall levels, according to the forecast, which was made public by Vibhooti Pokharel, spokesperson and meteorologist at the department.
The department’s forecast highlights that Koshi, Madhes, Bagmati, and the southeastern regions of Gandaki, along with the eastern part of Lumbini Province, are expected to experience above-average rainfall. Specifically:
Northern Koshi, western Madhes, and the eastern and southern regions of Bagmati are projected to have a 45-55% probability of above-average rainfall.
Southern Koshi, western Madhes, northwestern Bagmati, and southeastern Gandaki may see a 35-45% chance of above-average rainfall.
Meanwhile, the central and northern regions of Karnali and northern Sudurpashchim have a 35-45% probability of receiving below-average rainfall. The remaining areas of the country are likely to experience average rainfall, with a 35-45% chance.
The forecast indicates that most parts of Nepal will experience higher-than-average maximum temperatures. Key regions expected to see this trend include:
In the central and southern parts of Bagmati, western Madhes, west and central Gandaki, central and east Lumbini, and eastern and northern Karnali, the likelihood of above-average maximum temperatures ranges from 45-55%.
Central Koshi, eastern Madhes, and northern Bagmati are expected to have a 35-45% chance of average temperatures, while the rest of the country has a 35-45% probability of above-average temperatures.
The minimum temperature is also predicted to be above average across the country. The western parts of Sudurpashchim, Karnali, and Lumbini have a 55-65% chance of experiencing higher-than-average minimum temperatures. Similarly, eastern Karnali, central Lumbini, central and northern Gandaki, most of Bagmati, eastern Madhes, and Koshi have a 45-55% chance of above-average minimum temperatures. Other regions are projected to have a 35-45% chance of higher-than-average minimum temperatures.
These forecasts provide valuable insights for planning in sectors like agriculture, infrastructure development, and tourism, particularly in regions expecting significant deviations from normal weather patterns.
