Global air passenger demand declined by 0.5% in September 2026 compared with the same month last year, reflecting continued weakness in the Middle East and North American markets, according to the latest figures released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The decline was accompanied by a 0.2% reduction in total airline capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), while the global passenger load factor stood at 83.2%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year.
Despite the overall decline, international passenger demand returned to growth in several markets, increasing by 0.4% compared with September 2025. Domestic demand, however, fell by 2.2%, contributing to the weaker global performance. Excluding the Middle East, global passenger demand recorded 0.3% growth, indicating that regional differences continued to shape the international aviation market.
Middle East and North America Weigh on Global Passenger Demand
The Middle East recorded the steepest regional decline, with total passenger demand falling 8.0% year-on-year and capacity decreasing by 3.8%. Its passenger load factor dropped 3.6 percentage points to 78.2%, reflecting the continued impact of weaker air traffic across the region. North America also experienced a decline, with demand falling 1.6% and capacity decreasing 1.3%.
In contrast, several other regions recorded passenger growth during September. Africa led with a 5.0% increase in total demand, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean at 4.3%. Asia-Pacific demand rose by 0.5%, while Europe recorded 0.3% growth, showing a modest recovery across several major aviation markets.
International Air Travel Shows Signs of Recovery
International passenger demand increased by 0.4% in September, while international capacity grew by 0.5%. International Air Transport Association (IATA) noted a general improvement compared with August, with several major international routes returning to growth or experiencing slower declines. Excluding the Middle East, international demand increased by 1.7%, highlighting the stronger performance of markets outside the region.
Among international markets, African airlines recorded the strongest demand growth at 8.0%, followed by Latin American airlines at 8.2%, according to the regional international market breakdown. European carriers reported 1.8% growth, while Asia-Pacific airlines recorded a 0.7% increase. North American carriers experienced flat demand, whereas Middle Eastern airlines saw a 7.5% decline in international passenger demand.
Domestic Passenger Travel Declines Across Major Markets
Domestic passenger demand fell 2.2% in September compared with the same period in 2025, while domestic capacity decreased by 1.3%. The domestic passenger load factor stood at 82.5%, down 0.7 percentage points. Weakness in the United States and India outweighed growth in several other major domestic markets.
India recorded its steepest domestic passenger demand decline of the year, falling 8.3%, while the United States experienced a 2.7% decrease. Japan’s domestic traffic declined by 0.8%, partly due to weather-related flight disruptions during September’s Silver Week travel period. Meanwhile, Australia, Brazil and China recorded domestic demand growth of 4.5%, 2.0% and 3.1%, respectively.
IATA Warns of Continued Uncertainty in Aviation Growth
Commenting on the figures, Marie Owens Thomsen, International Air Transport Association (IATA)’s Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist, said the September decline reflected weaknesses in the Middle East and North America. She also noted that the overall performance had improved compared with August, with most international markets showing a return to growth or a slower rate of decline.
International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects global scheduled seat capacity to remain above 2025 levels in October and November, although growth is likely to remain weak and uneven across regions. The association also highlighted geopolitical uncertainty and volatile fuel prices as factors likely to influence the aviation industry’s performance in the coming months. The figures are provisional and may be revised as additional airline data becomes available.
