The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Meteorological Forecasting Division, has reported that the monsoon system currently affecting Nepal remains weak. According to the department, the axis of the monsoon trough is presently located to the south of the average position, contributing to the reduced impact of monsoonal activity across the nation.
This shift in the monsoon trough has resulted in relatively subdued rainfall and limited cloud development in most regions. The typical monsoonal pattern, which usually brings widespread rainfall and thunderstorms during this season, has been disrupted due to this southward displacement. As a result, the monsoon’s intensity remains below average for this period of the year.
Weather Forecast for Thursday: Cloudy Skies and Scattered Showers
On Thursday, the skies over Koshi, Bagmati, Gandaki, Karnali, and Sudurpashchim Provinces are expected to remain generally cloudy. In contrast, the rest of the provinces will experience partly cloudy weather conditions. The department forecasts that light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunder and lightning is likely in some hilly areas of Koshi, Bagmati, Gandaki, Karnali, and Sudurpashchim provinces. A few places in the remaining regions may also witness brief thunderstorms and light rain.
This pattern indicates that while the intensity of the monsoon is weakened, local atmospheric instability remains in place, especially in hilly and mountainous terrain, allowing for isolated weather disturbances. These disturbances are expected to bring short-lived showers and occasional lightning activity, particularly during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Night Forecast: Increased Cloud Cover and Rainfall Possibility
During Thursday night, the forecast suggests that the weather will continue to be generally cloudy in the hilly regions of Koshi, Madhesh, and Bagmati provinces, while other parts of the country will see partly cloudy skies. Meteorologists have indicated a continued possibility of light to moderate rainfall in a few areas of Koshi, Madhesh, and Bagmati, along with thunder and lightning.
Isolated parts of other provinces may also experience light rainfall. Notably, heavy rainfall is predicted at one or two places in the hills and Terai regions of Koshi Province, as well as in the Madhesh Province. These areas may face short but intense rainfall spells that could lead to localized waterlogging, especially in low-lying zones.
Localized Heavy Rainfall May Pose Hazards
Although the monsoon remains weak at a broader level, heavy rainfall in localized regions, such as the Terai belt of Koshi and certain areas of Madhesh, could result in flash floods or inundation in vulnerable spots. The department has advised residents in these regions to remain cautious, particularly in flood-prone areas, and to be alert for possible landslides in hilly terrain.
The occurrence of thunderstorms, especially when coupled with moderate to heavy precipitation, may also disrupt local travel and agricultural activities. Farmers have been encouraged to consider these forecasts while planning their fieldwork, especially during the critical crop-growing season. Similarly, drivers in hilly districts should exercise additional caution during nighttime travel, as reduced visibility and slippery roads may pose increased risks.
Monsoon Trough Displacement Affects Rainfall Pattern
The seasonal monsoon trough, which usually brings sustained and widespread rains during July, has shifted slightly southward from its average position. This geographical movement directly impacts the monsoon’s efficiency, weakening the moisture-laden winds from the Bay of Bengal that typically bring rainfall across Nepal. This pattern has been observed intermittently in recent years, often influenced by global climatic variables such as El Niño or the Indian Ocean Dipole.
Such variations in the monsoon trough’s placement can lead to inconsistent rainfall patterns—resulting in dry spells in some areas and intense short bursts of rainfall in others. This unpredictable behavior can complicate agricultural planning, water resource management, and disaster preparedness initiatives.
Authorities Continue to Monitor Monsoon Developments
The Meteorological Forecasting Division continues to closely monitor the evolving monsoon system. Daily weather bulletins are being issued to keep the public informed about potential hazards, rainfall distribution, and localized storms. The division has encouraged the public to stay updated via official channels and media reports, especially those residing in areas identified as being at risk of heavy rainfall and subsequent natural disasters.
Given the current weak monsoon activity, the department does not anticipate widespread heavy rainfall over the next few days. However, meteorologists caution that the situation could shift suddenly, and monsoon dynamics may intensify if the trough repositions northward toward Nepal.
Stay Vigilant Despite Weak Monsoon
While the overall monsoon activity in Nepal remains below average for now, localized and unpredictable weather events, especially in the hilly and Terai regions, are expected to continue. The possibility of heavy downpours in some parts of Koshi and Madhesh calls for public alertness. Authorities recommend remaining prepared, as weather conditions could evolve rapidly with potential implications for public safety, agriculture, and daily life.
In the meantime, the public is advised to remain informed through daily forecasts, heed weather warnings, and take necessary precautions during periods of active weather, particularly when thunder, lightning, or heavy rainfall is predicted.
